Thanks for this analysis; the fundamental problem I have with the iPad — and the iPhone, and the iPod Touch… — is that Apple controls the level of serendipity that can happen with the device. Specifically, Apple’s policy of only allowing blessed applications constrains the emergence of crazy, unexpected usage patterns enabled (as you say) by interoperability and convergence, but also by community participation.

In my view the device with more potential my well be the HP Slate, as soon as the clever Linux Universe ports some flavor of (e.g. Ubuntu) to it. The iPad is not interesting to me, because innovation is controlled; the Slate is interesting, because I’m confident I’ll soon be able to “sandblast” Windoze from it, put Ubuntu on it, and have my way with it.

Whether the iPad runs Flash or Air or HTML5 are in my view red herrings; a symptom of the Real(tm) Problem is that I can’t share Python hacks with my daughters on it.

“But wait,” I hear some say, “the iPhone had profound, unexpected effects on mobile computing!” Yes, it did, but the iPhone was an existence proof; the same thing happened with the introduction of the Mac. Remember the hoops that app developers had to go through to be Mac developers? Remember how expensive it was to be a member of the APDA?

The Mac succeeded because in its early days it was too disruptive for Apple to screw up. But soon enough, the chaotic, uncontrolled PC/DOS architecture allowed a more open (SW and HW) ecosystem to emerge. Perhaps the best thing that Apple could do is to allow scandalous, unapproved, paradigm-shifting applications to be openly distributed for the iPad.

Tom, you pose a very interesting question, “what is the iPad really against?” Guy Kawasaki emphasizes how important it is to pick good enemies; by defining your competition, you usually define yourself. Apple I think relies heavily on status; do you know anyone who admits to having a Zune? And I know, early adopters of HP Slates will be confused for iPad owners, and probably won’t mind!

Sorry for turning this into a mini blog post

John